Buffalo Bills 2022 Schedule: A Breakdown of Opposing QBs

The NFL schedule is officially out, and most of the intrigue for this event revolves around projecting the Bills’ final record for the 2022 season. A quick assessment of opposing quarterbacks provides a simplified way to predict the outcome of any game.

Why only quarterbacks?

Looking at the QBs alone isn’t enough for a thorough breakdown of an NFL matchup. But for fans like us, it’s a quick and easy way to factor in the challenge each opponent poses. Also, it’s pretty much consistent with the findings of reputable reviewers like these guys in Las Vegas.

A look at the odds for who considers Vegas to be the Super Bowl favorites reveals a list of teams that would match almost anyone’s top 10 ranking of NFL QBs. With the exception of the 49ers and Colts — teams still looking for an elite QB but with highly talented rosters and quality coaching — Vegas favor teams with quality quarterbacks.

The Bills are the Super Bowl favorites, and people who build mansions think they’re the strongest team in the league. These are truly the new glory days.

Let’s break down the Buffalo Bills’ 2022 schedule by opposing QBs.

“Favorable” and “Unfavourable” QB matchups

First of all, this is no comparison to Josh Allen. The term favorable/unfavorable refers to the NFL as a whole. A bottom half of the league QB is a favorable matchup, the top half is unfavorable. It’s neither fair nor productive to compare these normal people to Josh Allen. These mere mortals are compared to each other and not to the hurricane in shorts that is Joshua Patrick Allen. The other columns in the chart below show each QB’s placement in the following metrics:

  • Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA; outsiders in football) “Breaks down every single NFL game and situationally compares a team’s performance to a league baseline to determine the above-average score.”
  • QBR (ESPN) attempts to “consider all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he affects the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties.”
  • STEW is everyone’s favorite grumpy podcaster Bruce Nolan’s composite metric for evaluating QB play. STEW actually includes both DVOA and QBR, but it’s helpful to see them side-by-side.

In the 2021 preseason, the Buffalo Bills had a generous schedule of 12 “cheap” QBs. By the end of the season, that number had grown to 13 because Davis Mills is a real human who played QB for the Texans in place of Deshaun Watson. They went 9-4 in those matchups. The Bills went 1-1 in each of the Unfavorable and Toss Up categories to go 11-6.

Now, in the 2022 preseason, the Bills’ schedule isn’t as generous. With 10 Favorable and 7 Unfavorable, the Bills are expected to face nearly twice as many teams with solid quarterback play; and that includes last year’s Toss Ups. There aren’t truly mediocre QBs on the Bills’ 2022 schedule, unless you consider McCorkle a member of the soft, doughy middle.

There are some unpredictable factors:

  • Will Mitch Trubisky be rehabilitated? Even if he is, is he still the Steelers’ QB in Week 5?
  • Will Tannehill regain the form he showed under Arthur Smith?
  • How wonderful will it be to see TuaNON melt away in the face of the undeniable truth?

Buffalo Bill’s 2022 Overall Winnings

The Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL and should win the AFC East relatively unchallenged (6 of their top 10 QB opponents are their 6 games against the AFC East). But don’t be surprised if they face more challenges overall this season as the opposing QBs have a higher level of play.

Everything can happen. The Bills could face various opposing quarterbacks due to injuries, suspensions, or demotions. Last year, the Bills faced the clearly “cheap” Davis Mills instead of Watson. If the Bills (hopefully) march through the regular season, the Bills Mafia won’t take the “They didn’t play good teams” comments.

Final tally: 12-5, AFC East Champs for the 3rd year in a row


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